Uzbekistan has received a vote of confidence from one of the world's top credit rating agencies, with Fitch Ratings revising the country's outlook from "stable" to "positive" — citing sweeping privatization efforts, steady economic growth, and ongoing structural reforms.
In a report released Tuesday, Fitch said Uzbekistan had privatized approximately $5.1 billion in state assets between 2021 and 2025, with $1.6 billion of that coming in 2025 alone. The agency described the reform of state-owned enterprises as an ongoing process, noting that the number of majority state-owned companies fell last year while corporate governance standards were tightened.
The listing of the country's National Investment Fund on international capital markets in May was also highlighted as a milestone in Uzbekistan's push to deepen its integration into global financial markets.
Fitch projects the Uzbek economy will expand by 6% in 2026, accelerating to an average of 6.4% in 2027–2028 and settling at around 6.3% over the medium term. The agency credited continued reforms, solid commodity demand, and stable remittance flows as the key drivers of that momentum.
Energy subsidies, long a drag on public finances, are expected to shrink further — from around 1.4% of GDP in 2023 to just 0.3% in 2026 — as the government presses ahead with subsidy rationalization.
Uzbekistan's budget deficit came in at 2.1% of GDP in 2025, well within the country's statutory 3% ceiling, thanks in part to revenues boosted by high commodity prices, especially gold. Public debt is on a downward trajectory, forecast to fall from 32% of GDP now to roughly 28% by 2027–2028 — a level Fitch described as significantly below both Uzbekistan's own 60% debt ceiling and the roughly 53% median for BB-rated peers.
Despite the broadly positive picture, Fitch flagged several vulnerabilities that could test Uzbekistan's resilience.
The ongoing war in Iran introduces uncertainty into the 2026 outlook, mainly through indirect channels. While Uzbekistan has limited direct trade ties with Tehran, around 8% of its imports and 4% of its exports transit through Iranian ports, and the country is now actively exploring alternative trade routes.
Russia, meanwhile, remains a structural dependency. It absorbed 12.8% of Uzbekistan's exports in 2025 and is the source of roughly 70% of the country's remittance inflows — though Fitch noted that the geographic diversification of those flows is gradually progressing. Rising oil and gas prices also pose an inflationary risk, partly offset by long-term energy supply contracts.
Perhaps most striking is Uzbekistan's exposure to gold. The precious metal accounted for 41% of the country's merchandise exports in 2025, riding a surge in global prices. While that has boosted revenues in the short term, Fitch warned it leaves the country's external balance vulnerable to commodity shocks.
The sovereign wealth fund — the Uzbekistan Reconstruction and Development Fund — held assets equivalent to 12.4% of GDP in 2025, down from 14% the previous year, with foreign currency assets standing at around 4.2% of GDP. A public financial management reform strategy running through 2030 is underway to shore up fiscal discipline over the longer term.
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