United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby is floating Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as possible future destinations, revealing that the airline’s head of network planning, Patrick Quayle, visited both countries this year. There is a substantial obstacle, however: United cannot fly over Russia. For now, Central Asia is an opportunity United is exploring rather than a destination it is preparing to announce.
United Airlines Is Exploring Uzbekistan And Kazakhstan, But Russia Stands In The Way
During an appearance on the Cheeky Pint podcast with John Collison and Ben Thompson, Kirby discussed how United identifies destinations that other U.S. carriers have overlooked. He credited Quayle and his team with looking beyond established markets, then offered a particularly interesting example: Quayle traveled to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan this year to assess the possibilities.
Kirby explained: “We can’t fly there today because we can’t fly over Russia.” But he left the door open: “This could work down the road.”
Kirby did not identify a city, U.S. gateway, aircraft, or launch date. This was a glimpse into United’s thinking, not a route announcement. You can watch the discussion below, with the Central Asia remarks beginning around the 46:29-minute mark:
Russia Is An Obstacle, But Central Asia Is Not Inaccessible
Uzbekistan Airways already serves New York from Tashkent. But that’s a flag carrier potentially willing to lose money on a prestige route and Uzbekistan Airways does not have the same Russia-overfly concerns that United or another U.S. carrier would have.
I would welcome a more detailed explanation of what United would need before proceeding, but I’d safely wager that Russian airspace reopening would indeed be a condition precedent for starting this route.
Nevertheless, I love that Quayle is looking at these markets. I also love that he and his network team are going somewhere, studying the opportunity, and considering whether it can make a destination more accessible to its customers. Historical booking data is useful, but it cannot fully describe demand for a nonstop flight that does not yet exist.
Of course, an interesting destination does not automatically produce enough passengers willing to pay the necessary fares. Tourism alone may not support a longhaul route, particularly if demand is highly seasonal…as I understand it, that was a big problem with United’s Amman, Jordan route, before the whole region descended into chaos.
I’d imagine this route would launch from Newark (same with service to Almaty, Kazakhstan), meaning the existing New York–Tashkent service also makes Uzbekistan a different proposition from opening an entirely unserved U.S. market. United would need to offer passengers a reason to choose it, certainly emphasizing the convenience of connections through its own network.
United is looking seriously enough to send its network chief, but a scouting trip is still several steps away from a flight available for purchase. Still, I don’t downplay this as a throwaway remark by Kirby. It seems to me that United is preparing for the many opportunities that will open if the siege on Ukraine ever ends and Russian airspace is reopened. We tend to focus on India, which is huge, but there are many additional opportunities as well.
Scott Kirby says Patrick Quayle visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan this year, with both countries representing possible future opportunities for United. Russian airspace access remains an obstacle, and no routes have been announced.
I love the ambition. These would be fascinating additions to United’s network, provided the economics and operating conditions support them. For now, we will put Central Asia on the list of places to watch and we now have another reason to pray for a conclusive end to the war in Ukraine (with a victory for Ukraine…).
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